The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers

Año de publicación

2022

UUID

20641a4a-d035-417d-96f8-21d5f1e6ae29

Resumen

The reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the e ects of infection control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in 53 countries.

Publicador

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 20 (online first)

Enlace del origen de la publicación

Documentación restringida

Sí

Tipo de publicación

Article

Descriptores

• COVID-19
• NUMERO REPRODUCTIVO
• METODOS EN DEMOGRAFIA